Published 2026-04-10 · ARK Tracker
ARK Invest's updated open-source Tesla model puts the expected value at $4,600 per share — with a bull case of $5,800. That's a 10–14x move from current prices. Here's exactly how Cathie Wood and her team get there, and what has to go right.
ARK's Tesla model is unusual in one key respect: it's open source. Cathie Wood's team publishes their full valuation assumptions, inviting public scrutiny. The updated model for 2026 yields:
The vast majority of this value — roughly 60–70% of the base case — comes from autonomous ride-hailing (robotaxi) revenue, not from vehicle sales.
If Tesla successfully deploys a robotaxi network at scale, the economics are dramatically better than selling cars. ARK models Tesla's robotaxi revenue per vehicle at approximately $1.00/mile , with the vehicle operating 20 hours/day. At scale, this generates more lifetime revenue per vehicle than the original sale price — effectively turning each Tesla into an annuity.
In this post
- ARK's $4,600 Tesla Price Target: Where Does It Come From?
- Tesla's Data Moat: Why ARK Believes in FSD
- The Austin Robotaxi Launch: June 2025
- Tesla Semi: Autonomous Trucking as a Second Revenue Stream
- What Has to Go Right for $4,600 to Happen
- ARK Is Still Buying Tesla in 2026
- Frequently Asked Questions