Holding Spotlight April 10, 2026 • 8 min read • By Theo Ledger
ARK's latest open-source Tesla model puts the expected value at $4,400 a share in 2031, roughly eleven times today's price. Most of that number is a bet on one business that barely exists yet. Here is what the model assumes, and what ARK's funds actually hold.
Last Updated: November 1, 2026 — rewritten for ARK's 2031 model. Holdings figures are from ARK's 30 October 2026 files.
The numbers
ARK publishes its Tesla valuation as an open-source model and runs it as a Monte Carlo simulation: thousands of combinations of assumptions, each producing a share price. The headline figure is the average outcome, and the bear and bull cases are the 25th and 75th percentiles, not separate scenarios. The current model, published in October 2026, looks out to 2031:
| Case | 2031 value per share | Multiple of $403 |
|---|---|---|
| Bear (25th percentile) | $3,300 | ~8x |
| Expected value | $4,400 | ~11x |
| Bull (75th percentile) | $5,000 | ~12x |
The $403 reference is the price implied by ARK's own holdings file for 30 October: $1,196.9 million of Tesla across 2,967,652 shares. Reaching $4,400 by the end of 2031 would take compound growth of close to 60% a year for five years.
It replaces ARK's previous model, published in June 2024, which put the expected value at $2,600 a share in 2029 (bear $2,000, bull $3,100). Both models put ARK's bear case well above where Tesla trades today. That is the clearest sign of how far ARK's view sits from the market's.
Why robotaxis are most of the number
In the 2031 model, about 80% of Tesla's value comes from an autonomous ride-hailing network. In the 2024 model it was about 90%. The share fell mainly because ARK now gives the Optimus humanoid robot real weight, at roughly 15% of enterprise value. Car manufacturing, the business that produces nearly all of Tesla's revenue today, is a small part of the valuation.
In ARK's base case, Tesla sells about 10.2 million vehicles in 2031 and runs a robotaxi fleet of roughly 8 million. Ride-hailing brings in about $753 billion, out of roughly $1.45 trillion of total revenue. For scale, Tesla delivered fewer than 2 million vehicles a year in 2024 and 2025.
The reasoning is about unit economics. A car sold earns its margin once. A car Tesla owns and runs as a driverless taxi earns revenue every hour it is on the road, with no driver to pay. If that works at scale, it is a far bigger business than selling cars, which is why ARK values Tesla as an AI and autonomy company rather than an automaker.
What ARK actually holds
ARK's funds act on the thesis. Tesla is the largest holding in three of ARK's actively managed ETFs:
| ETF | Shares | Market value | Weight | Rank in fund |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARKQ (Autonomous Tech & Robotics) | 565,749 | $228.2M | 12.55% | #1 |
| ARKK (Innovation) | 1,924,310 | $776.1M | 10.77% | #1 |
| ARKW (Next Generation Technology) | 408,971 | $164.9M | 8.63% | #1 |
| ARKX (Space Exploration) | 68,622 | $27.7M | 3.89% | #10 |
It is the most concentrated position in ARKQ, the fund built around autonomy and robotics, which is where you would expect it. Anyone holding several ARK funds owns more Tesla than any single fund's weight suggests. Our combined holdings view shows the total.
ARK bought the summer sell-off
ARK's share count moved against the price this year:
| ARK file | Tesla shares (all funds) | Market value | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 January 2026 | 2,694,782 | $1,211.9M | ~$450 |
| 1 July 2026 | 2,533,963 | $1,065.8M | ~$421 |
| 3 August 2026 | 2,782,452 | $865.9M | ~$311 |
| 30 October 2026 | 2,967,652 | $1,196.9M | ~$403 |
ARK trimmed Tesla slightly in the first half. Then, in July, as the implied price fell from about $421 to about $311, the funds added roughly 250,000 shares, the heaviest Tesla buying of the year. Since 1 July the share count is up about 17%. ARK has done the same with SpaceX and Coinbase: it adds to a high-conviction name when the price falls instead of trimming. This year that worked. The price recovered to about $403, and the position is worth roughly what it was in January despite the drawdown.
You can follow each transaction on ARKK trades and ARKQ trades.
What has to go right
The model can be internally consistent and still miss. For $4,400 to happen, a specific chain of events has to go right:
- Unsupervised autonomy works broadly. The cars have to drive without a safety driver across ordinary cities and weather, not just in a mapped and geofenced service area. Tesla's robotaxi service started in Austin in June 2025, and that is a long way from a fleet of 8 million.
- Regulators allow it at scale. Technical capability and permission are separate problems. Driverless ride-hailing is approved city by city and state by state, and ARK's model needs approval across the US and beyond.
- The ramp is fast. ARK itself names a slower-than-expected robotaxi ramp as the main risk. A thesis that works in 2035 instead of 2031 is worth much less in today's money.
- Prices hold. Waymo already runs a driverless service, and other operators are following. If several fleets compete on the same streets, the price per mile, and the margin with it, could fall well below what the model assumes.
- Optimus becomes a real product. About 15% of the value assumes around a million humanoid robots sold to outside buyers. No such market exists today.
The fair reading is that ARK's model does not forecast Tesla's most likely future. It shows what Tesla is worth if autonomy works, and invites you to decide how likely that is. Even ARK's bear case assumes autonomy largely works. The model's percentiles don't capture the case where it doesn't.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is ARK's Tesla price target?
ARK's October 2026 model gives an expected value of $4,400 a share in 2031, with a bear case of $3,300 and a bull case of $5,000 (the 25th and 75th percentiles of its simulation). It replaced the June 2024 model's $2,600 for 2029.
Why is ARK's Tesla target so high?
About 80% of the value comes from a robotaxi network that ARK expects Tesla to run at very large scale by 2031. Selling cars contributes comparatively little.
How much Tesla does ARK own?
2,967,652 shares worth $1,196.9 million across ARKK, ARKQ, ARKW and ARKX as of 30 October 2026. It is the largest holding in ARKK, ARKQ and ARKW. See today's ARKK holdings →
Has ARK been buying or selling Tesla?
Mostly buying since July. ARK added about 250,000 shares that month as the price fell, and its total share count is up about 17% since 1 July. Track ARKK's Tesla trades →
Disclaimer: ARK's price targets are forward-looking projections, not guarantees. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. WhaleFilings is an independent tool and is not affiliated with ARK Invest or Tesla. Past performance is not indicative of future results.